Every January, the predictions market throws open its doors. Economists, analysts and commentators place their bets on the year ahead - where markets will rise and fall, how society will shift, which crises will escalate and which unforeseen events will take centre stage. Once, this flurry of forecasting was triggered by the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report, a weighty tome that arrives mid-to-late January, outlining what might go wrong (and, occasionally, right) in the years ahead. But these days, the gates burst open early, with speculation running rampant from day one.
And why wouldn’t it? The odds on global uncertainty have never been shorter. Political extremism is on the rise, elections are poised to send shockwaves across continents and we’re deep into a climate crisis that doesn’t pause for breath - fires rage, snowstorms freeze us solid, floods drown entire regions. The complexity of the global situation makes prediction less of a science and more of a fool’s errand.
Yet, each January, we still act as if we can place safe bets. Who’s the odds-on favourite for economic collapse? Will a new war make a surprise late charge? Could climate catastrophe move ahead on the turn? We lay out our forecasts with the confidence of seasoned punters, as though the race is fixed - as though we can anticipate every swerve on the track.
But here’s the problem - this race doesn’t run to form.
Speculation is not strategy. Forecasting what might happen is not the same as preparing for what could. Saying “My money’s on economic collapse” or “I think the next crisis will be geopolitical” doesn’t change the outcome - it just keeps us standing still while the world shifts beneath our feet.
Risk and issues analysis is not about guessing the winner - it’s about making sure we’re ready for whatever - and whoever - crosses the line first.
And that’s the real difference. The predictions market is filled with people placing bets, waiting to see if they’re right. But situational intelligence and preparedness means recognising that anything could happen - and ensuring we have the ability to move, adapt and act when it does.
As we enter 2025, movement - not just insight - will determine who survives the race ahead.
Forget Betting - Start Preparing
But if recent years have taught us anything, it’s that the horsemen don’t always ride in order. Some bolt early, others lag behind and the ones you don’t see coming are often the most dangerous. Rather than spending January trying to predict the precise shape of disaster, we’d be better served by preparing for its arrival - however and whenever it comes.
That’s where our metaphorical grab bag comes in. A racing punter can hedge their bets - we need to hedge against crisis. So, what should go into the survival kit for 2025? Here's your starter for ten.
Information literacy – misinformation, disinformation and manipulation will be everywhere this year. Sharpening our ability to discern fact from fiction will be critical. Hard, I know but we have to work out how and how to get it in the bag.
Adaptive strategies – the only certainty is uncertainty (almost a cliche I know, sorry). Whether in business, politics or personal life, flexibility will be more valuable than rigid planning.
Community networks – survival isn’t just about personal resilience. The strength of our networks - local, professional, global - will determine how well we ride out storms. And don't just opt for comfort communities where we all might agree with each other. That just becomes an echo chamber and doesn't help us move forward.
Environmental understanding and action plan – climate impacts are no longer a theoretical risk. They are the backdrop to everything. Understanding their trajectory and mitigating personal and professional exposure, is essential. Water, for example, will be a battleground - an issue and risk identified over many years but this year, with dams likely to block river flows across borders and data centres sucking up our life liquid in the dry. So what will you do to stay afloat? Keep you communities hydrated?
Ethical vigilance – as polarisation deepens and extremism gains ground, there will be moral lines to hold, even when pressure mounts to let them blur.
Emotional resilience and courage – when threats - both online and off - become very real, fear takes hold. The pressure to stay silent, to avoid confrontation, to shrink away from difficult conversations will be stronger than ever. But silence only serves those who seek to intimidate. The ability to stand firm, to keep speaking out in the face of hostility, to resist both mob mentality and self-censorship, will be a survival skill as vital as any other. Finding the courage to push back against fear - to defend truth, dignity and each other - will be what keeps the light from going out.
Leap Before the Hooves Clash
Predictions will flood in over the coming weeks. Some will be grounded in hard data, others in wishful thinking and a few will be made with the sole aim of bending reality to fit an agenda or profile. But instead of fixating on who’s most likely to take the lead in this year’s Apocalypse Stakes, we’d do better to look to our own footing - to ensure that, as the ground shakes, we’re able and equipped to move.
Because whether the Four Horsemen (and their new mates) arrive at full charge or slow trot, the smart money isn’t on guessing when - the gates are open and they’re already en route. The smart money is on being ready to sidestep the stampede.
Being prepared is at the heart of this year’s PR Horizons session. Rather than placing bets on what might happen, we'll look to the horizon and analyse what's coming. We will focus on strengthening your ability to adapt, ways to harness the courage (personal and organisational) to face what’s ahead and sharpening your situational intelligence and ensuring you have everything you need in your metaphorical grab bag. From navigating misinformation to digital transformation, this session will, I hope, equip you with the tools, insights and tactics needed - not just to withstand uncertainty but to move through the second half of the decade with confidence, clarity and purpose.
PS: We won’t forget the latest horseman to enter the track - artificial intelligence. No longer a distant contender, AI is shaping the race, altering the odds and redrawing the track itself. AI influences everything so be ready to explore what that means for all of us trying to stay ahead of the pack.